Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB +140 UCI -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +9 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | UCI -4.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+48.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -3.8 (-5.2) | 140.6 (+44.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UCI -3.1 (-5.9) | 141.0 (+44.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UCI -4.1 (-4.9) | 140.0 (+45.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -3.8 (-5.2) | 140.6 (+44.4) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UCI 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UCSB 84 – 79 UCI |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCI 62 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCI 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UCI 76 – 61 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 14-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#138) | 8.8 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#146) | 2.14 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#157) | 2.21 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#225) | 0.600 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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