Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UCI -600 UCSB +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -11.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -12.0 (-0.0) | 143.4 (+6.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UCI -10.1 (+1.9) | 142.2 (+7.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UCI -11.6 (+0.4) | 142.1 (+7.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -11.4 (+0.6) | 142.2 (+7.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UCI 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UCSB 84 – 79 UCI |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCI 97 – 88 UCSB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCI 62 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UCI 76 – 61 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-0 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-9 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#74) | -0.7 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#80) | -0.22 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#84) | -0.22 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#55) | 0.483 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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