Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -138 BAY +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +7 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | TTU -0.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -0.3 (-7.3) | 145.7 (+9.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -1.0 (-8.0) | 143.2 (+11.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -0.1 (-6.9) | 146.3 (+8.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -0.0 (-7.0) | 147.9 (+7.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | TTU 92 – 73 BAY |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TTU 76 – 74 BAY |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TTU 73 – 59 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TTU 78 – 68 BAY |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BAY 79 – 73 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#37) | 13.8 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#119) | 2.42 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#115) | 3.11 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#168) | 0.600 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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