Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | BAY +114 TTU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +19 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | TTU -1.2 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -0.4 (-18.6) | 151.5 (+13.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -0.6 (-19.6) | 150.8 (+14.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -1.0 (-18.0) | 149.5 (+15.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -0.4 (-18.6) | 148.9 (+16.1) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | TTU 76 – 74 BAY |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TTU 73 – 59 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TTU 78 – 68 BAY |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BAY 79 – 73 TTU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | BAY 89 – 62 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#39) | 17.8 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#51) | 3.63 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#48) | 4.42 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#76) | 0.673 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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