Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TTU -150 BAY +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -1.7 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -0.3 (+10.3) | 148.2 (-2.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -0.1 (+10.1) | 149.5 (-3.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -0.1 (+10.1) | 150.1 (-4.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -0.5 (+9.5) | 149.5 (-3.5) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | TTU 92 – 73 BAY |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TTU 76 – 74 BAY |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TTU 73 – 59 BAY |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BAY 79 – 73 TTU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | BAY 89 – 62 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#30) | 17.7 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#31) | 2.57 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#42) | 3.15 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#47) | 0.609 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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