Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -260 BAY +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -4.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -4.9 (-2.9) | 140.3 (+9.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -5.2 (-3.2) | 142.8 (+7.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -4.9 (-2.9) | 142.9 (+7.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -3.9 (-1.9) | 141.7 (+8.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | TTU 92 – 73 BAY |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TTU 73 – 59 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TTU 78 – 68 BAY |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BAY 79 – 73 TTU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | BAY 89 – 62 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 20.7 (#8) | 16.2 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#19) | 2.16 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.80 (#14) | 2.79 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#34) | 0.575 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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