Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -250 TTU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -8.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -7.8 (-1.8) | 146.6 (+5.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -6.8 (-0.8) | 151.4 (+0.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -7.4 (-1.4) | 151.6 (+0.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -7.4 (-1.4) | 150.7 (+1.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | TTU 92 – 73 BAY |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TTU 76 – 74 BAY |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TTU 73 – 59 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TTU 78 – 68 BAY |
| Feb 4, 2023 | BAY 89 – 62 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#11) | 12.0 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#21) | 2.13 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#19) | 2.38 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#23) | 0.595 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.8% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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