Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | TTU -340 BAY +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +14 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -5.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -6.2 (+7.8) | 141.9 (-9.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -6.7 (+7.3) | 144.2 (-12.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -6.5 (+7.5) | 144.4 (-12.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -6.7 (+7.3) | 143.0 (-11.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | TTU 92 – 73 BAY |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TTU 76 – 74 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TTU 78 – 68 BAY |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BAY 79 – 73 TTU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | BAY 89 – 62 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#12) | 17.2 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#26) | 2.32 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.78 (#19) | 2.97 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#34) | 0.600 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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