Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -500 TTU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +27 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -8.3 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -8.9 (+18.1) | 143.8 (+7.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -7.8 (+19.2) | 146.3 (+4.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -7.4 (+19.6) | 146.4 (+4.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -8.1 (+18.9) | 145.5 (+5.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | TTU 92 – 73 BAY |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TTU 76 – 74 BAY |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TTU 73 – 59 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TTU 78 – 68 BAY |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BAY 79 – 73 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#14) | 10.0 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#10) | 0.96 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#11) | 1.28 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#16) | 0.513 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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