Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UML -150 UMBC +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UML -6.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -4.3 (+1.7) | 152.3 (+3.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -3.6 (+2.4) | 147.6 (+8.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -3.7 (+2.3) | 152.1 (+3.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -3.6 (+2.4) | 153.6 (+2.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 8-8 |
| Home | 17-0 | 13-4 |
| Away | 9-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#150) | -1.4 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#142) | 0.20 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#135) | 0.05 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#148) | 0.487 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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