Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UK -600 UGA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UK -8.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -6.5 (+7.5) | 135.1 (+20.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -7.9 (+6.1) | 133.9 (+22.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -5.8 (+8.2) | 137.0 (+19.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -6.2 (+7.8) | 137.0 (+19.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UGA 86 – 78 UK |
| Jan 8, 2025 | UGA 82 – 69 UK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UK 105 – 96 UGA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UGA 75 – 68 UK |
| Jan 8, 2022 | UK 92 – 77 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#48) | 4.8 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#54) | 1.46 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#54) | 1.95 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#71) | 0.559 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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