Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | UK -298 UGA +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +8 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -4.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -4.1 (-12.1) | 162.8 (+1.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -6.0 (-14.0) | 163.8 (+0.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -5.1 (-13.1) | 162.4 (+1.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -6.0 (-14.0) | 162.2 (+1.8) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2025 | UGA 82 – 69 UK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UK 105 – 96 UGA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UGA 75 – 68 UK |
| Jan 18, 2023 | UK 85 – 71 UGA |
| Jan 8, 2022 | UK 92 – 77 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 89.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#24) | 16.1 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#28) | 2.05 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#27) | 2.86 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#30) | 0.558 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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