Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -138 UIC +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -2.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -0.5 (+9.5) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -0.4 (+9.6) | 140.0 (+2.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -0.7 (+9.3) | 139.1 (+2.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -0.3 (+9.7) | 139.1 (+2.9) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | VAL 71 – 67 UIC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | VAL 66 – 59 UIC |
| Mar 7, 2025 | VAL 67 – 50 UIC |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UIC 77 – 73 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UIC 81 – 74 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 4-16 |
| Home | 8-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 2-12 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#314) | -7.0 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#297) | -0.75 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#299) | -1.06 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#321) | 0.457 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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