Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -225 BGSU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +29 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -4.3 (+24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -3.1 (+25.9) | 158.7 (+12.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -4.8 (+24.2) | 156.9 (+14.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -2.6 (+26.4) | 158.0 (+13.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -2.2 (+26.8) | 158.2 (+12.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | BUF 89 – 78 BGSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BGSU 63 – 59 BUF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BGSU 79 – 61 BUF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BGSU 87 – 73 BUF |
| Feb 16, 2022 | BUF 112 – 85 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#237) | -4.2 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#229) | -0.90 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#232) | -1.18 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#235) | 0.435 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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