Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +105 BGSU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +4 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -1.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -1.1 (-2.9) | 150.6 (-28.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -0.6 (-4.6) | 148.7 (-26.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -0.3 (-4.3) | 150.3 (-28.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -0.9 (-3.1) | 151.7 (-29.7) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | BUF 89 – 78 BGSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BGSU 79 – 61 BUF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BGSU 87 – 73 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2023 | BUF 100 – 71 BGSU |
| Feb 16, 2022 | BUF 112 – 85 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-9 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#343) | -8.6 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#317) | -1.86 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#324) | -2.49 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#316) | 0.399 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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