Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | BGSU -375 BUF +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +11 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -9.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -8.5 (-19.5) | 147.9 (+19.1) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -7.3 (-18.3) | 147.7 (+19.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -7.5 (-18.5) | 146.6 (+20.4) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -7.5 (-18.5) | 147.3 (+19.7) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2025 | BGSU 63 – 59 BUF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BGSU 79 – 61 BUF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BGSU 87 – 73 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2023 | BUF 100 – 71 BGSU |
| Feb 16, 2022 | BUF 112 – 85 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#104) | -0.9 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#119) | 0.14 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#115) | 0.26 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#117) | 0.520 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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