Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | BGSU -1000 BUF +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | BGSU -15.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -12.0 (+2.0) | 147.2 (+12.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -9.3 (+4.7) | 146.6 (+13.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -11.6 (+2.4) | 145.8 (+14.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -11.7 (+2.3) | 146.9 (+13.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | BUF 89 – 78 BGSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BGSU 63 – 59 BUF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BGSU 79 – 61 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2023 | BUF 100 – 71 BGSU |
| Feb 16, 2022 | BUF 112 – 85 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-5 | 2-13 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#213) | -14.4 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#168) | -3.30 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#176) | -3.82 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#190) | 0.402 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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