Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +27 | 197 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -5.3 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -5.5 (-21.5) | 162.6 (+34.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -5.8 (-21.2) | 161.9 (+35.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -4.9 (-22.1) | 160.7 (+36.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -5.3 (-21.7) | 163.7 (+33.3) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | BUF 89 – 78 BGSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BGSU 63 – 59 BUF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BGSU 79 – 61 BUF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BGSU 87 – 73 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2023 | BUF 100 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#246) | 3.9 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#242) | 0.42 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#248) | 0.64 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#245) | 0.531 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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