Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU -400 BUF +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | BGSU -8.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -5.5 (+12.5) | 152.8 (-12.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -6.2 (+11.8) | 152.8 (-12.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -5.3 (+12.7) | 150.1 (-10.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -5.2 (+12.8) | 151.5 (-11.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | BUF 89 – 78 BGSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BGSU 63 – 59 BUF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BGSU 87 – 73 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2023 | BUF 100 – 71 BGSU |
| Feb 16, 2022 | BUF 112 – 85 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#276) | -11.3 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#313) | -1.53 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#317) | -2.53 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#325) | 0.444 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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