Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -700 DAV +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -11.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -10.9 (-3.9) | 130.4 (-1.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -9.4 (-2.4) | 131.7 (-2.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -11.3 (-4.3) | 130.5 (-1.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -11.3 (-4.3) | 130.5 (-1.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | DAY 70 – 59 DAV |
| Feb 5, 2025 | DAY 69 – 63 DAV |
| Feb 28, 2024 | DAY 80 – 66 DAV |
| Jan 4, 2024 | DAY 72 – 59 DAV |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DAY 69 – 55 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#65) | 0.3 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#87) | -0.01 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#70) | 0.35 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#85) | 0.523 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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