Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -600 DAV +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -8.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -8.2 (-2.2) | 143.4 (-11.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -8.4 (-2.4) | 141.1 (-9.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -7.5 (-1.5) | 144.1 (-12.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -8.0 (-2.0) | 144.1 (-12.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | DAY 70 – 59 DAV |
| Feb 28, 2024 | DAY 80 – 66 DAV |
| Jan 4, 2024 | DAY 72 – 59 DAV |
| Jan 18, 2023 | DAY 68 – 61 DAV |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DAY 69 – 55 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#81) | 2.1 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#70) | 0.40 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#67) | 0.68 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#66) | 0.511 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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