Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -238 DAV +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +11 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -4.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -2.2 (+8.8) | 140.5 (-11.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -4.4 (+6.6) | 139.9 (-10.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -3.3 (+7.7) | 140.8 (-11.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -2.4 (+8.6) | 141.5 (-12.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2025 | DAY 69 – 63 DAV |
| Feb 28, 2024 | DAY 80 – 66 DAV |
| Jan 4, 2024 | DAY 72 – 59 DAV |
| Jan 18, 2023 | DAY 68 – 61 DAV |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DAY 69 – 55 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#102) | 4.2 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#89) | 0.73 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#89) | 0.90 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#70) | 0.551 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 35.6% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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