Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | DAV +160 DAY -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +14 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -0.8 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -0.8 (-13.2) | 130.0 (-6.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -0.6 (-13.4) | 130.2 (-6.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -1.3 (-12.7) | 130.9 (-6.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -0.8 (-13.2) | 130.0 (-6.0) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | DAY 70 – 59 DAV |
| Feb 5, 2025 | DAY 69 – 63 DAV |
| Feb 28, 2024 | DAY 80 – 66 DAV |
| Jan 4, 2024 | DAY 72 – 59 DAV |
| Jan 18, 2023 | DAY 68 – 61 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#155) | 6.2 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#100) | 0.68 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#89) | 1.09 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#60) | 0.533 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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