Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -700 DAV +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -11.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -10.6 (+3.4) | 132.9 (+13.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -10.3 (+3.7) | 133.6 (+12.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -10.8 (+3.2) | 133.1 (+12.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -10.0 (+4.0) | 133.3 (+12.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | DAY 70 – 59 DAV |
| Feb 5, 2025 | DAY 69 – 63 DAV |
| Jan 4, 2024 | DAY 72 – 59 DAV |
| Jan 18, 2023 | DAY 68 – 61 DAV |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DAY 69 – 55 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-0 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#34) | 4.5 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#15) | 0.58 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#18) | 0.93 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#5) | 0.533 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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