Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | VAN +333 ALA -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +12 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -10.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -9.4 (-2.6) | 155.8 (-11.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -8.2 (-3.8) | 157.8 (-13.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -7.9 (-4.1) | 157.2 (-13.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -9.0 (-3.0) | 156.8 (-12.8) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAN 96 – 90 ALA |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ALA 103 – 87 VAN |
| Jan 6, 2024 | ALA 78 – 75 VAN |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ALA 101 – 44 VAN |
| Mar 11, 2022 | VAN 82 – 76 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#91) | 19.4 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#104) | 3.79 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#109) | 4.48 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#103) | 0.681 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 45.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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