Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 176.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -155 ALA +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +6 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -6.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 182.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -8.5 (-2.5) | 173.9 (+12.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -9.0 (-3.0) | 171.6 (+14.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -7.6 (-1.6) | 175.9 (+10.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -7.1 (-1.1) | 173.0 (+13.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2025 | ALA 103 – 87 VAN |
| Jan 6, 2024 | ALA 78 – 75 VAN |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ALA 101 – 44 VAN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | ALA 78 – 66 VAN |
| Mar 11, 2022 | VAN 82 – 76 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.7 | 91.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 82.7 |
| Massey | 23.0 (#7) | 19.9 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.30 (#5) | 3.60 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.36 (#4) | 5.13 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#6) | 0.658 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 42.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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