Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -1200 VAN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +16 | 190 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -11.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -10.4 (+5.6) | 163.6 (+26.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -12.6 (+3.4) | 166.1 (+23.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -10.7 (+5.3) | 165.9 (+24.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -10.6 (+5.4) | 163.9 (+26.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAN 96 – 90 ALA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | ALA 78 – 75 VAN |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ALA 101 – 44 VAN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | ALA 78 – 66 VAN |
| Mar 11, 2022 | VAN 82 – 76 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 21.0 (#8) | 13.4 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.03 (#3) | 2.90 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.13 (#6) | 3.12 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.702 (#2) | 0.586 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 44.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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