Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | VAN +650 ALA -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -22.3 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -13.8 (+10.8) | 154.9 (-1.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -12.3 (+9.3) | 159.4 (-6.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -13.5 (+10.5) | 155.1 (-2.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -15.4 (+12.4) | 155.0 (-2.0) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAN 96 – 90 ALA |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ALA 103 – 87 VAN |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ALA 101 – 44 VAN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | ALA 78 – 66 VAN |
| Mar 11, 2022 | VAN 82 – 76 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-10 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 90.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#259) | 21.5 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#268) | 1.74 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#269) | 2.54 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#257) | 0.605 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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