Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -1400 VAN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +57 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -16.6 (+40.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -13.0 (+44.0) | 156.3 (-11.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -13.9 (+43.1) | 157.0 (-12.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -15.5 (+41.5) | 157.1 (-12.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -14.6 (+42.4) | 154.9 (-9.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAN 96 – 90 ALA |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ALA 103 – 87 VAN |
| Jan 6, 2024 | ALA 78 – 75 VAN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | ALA 78 – 66 VAN |
| Mar 11, 2022 | VAN 82 – 76 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 18.5 (#4) | 5.4 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#2) | 0.85 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#3) | 0.95 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#1) | 0.557 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 45.3 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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