Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +6 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -4.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -5.0 (-11.0) | 149.8 (+8.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.5 (-9.5) | 150.5 (+7.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -3.4 (-9.4) | 151.7 (+6.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -3.0 (-9.0) | 149.5 (+8.5) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAN 96 – 90 ALA |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ALA 103 – 87 VAN |
| Jan 6, 2024 | ALA 78 – 75 VAN |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ALA 101 – 44 VAN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | ALA 78 – 66 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#20) | 8.7 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#36) | 1.23 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#32) | 1.39 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#11) | 0.545 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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