Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | BALL -400 WMU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +1 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -13.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -11.3 (-10.3) | 144.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -10.3 (-9.3) | 144.0 (-3.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -11.5 (-10.5) | 149.9 (-8.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -11.8 (-10.8) | 148.5 (-7.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BALL 74 – 71 WMU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WMU 74 – 71 BALL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | WMU 78 – 76 BALL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BALL 77 – 67 WMU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | WMU 78 – 68 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#117) | -6.5 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#107) | -1.59 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#107) | -1.93 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#113) | 0.434 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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