Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -275 WMU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +2 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -5.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -4.7 (-6.7) | 139.0 (+15.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -4.6 (-6.6) | 138.9 (+15.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -4.1 (-6.1) | 138.8 (+15.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -4.1 (-6.1) | 138.9 (+15.1) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BALL 74 – 71 WMU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WMU 74 – 71 BALL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BALL 77 – 67 WMU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | WMU 78 – 68 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2023 | BALL 71 – 70 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#264) | -7.5 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#264) | -1.17 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#263) | -1.56 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#277) | 0.444 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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