Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | WMU +250 BALL -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -6.8 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -6.0 (+16.0) | 144.7 (+1.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -7.8 (+17.8) | 147.5 (-1.5) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -8.7 (+18.7) | 148.9 (-2.9) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -8.3 (+18.3) | 146.7 (-0.7) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BALL 74 – 71 WMU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WMU 74 – 71 BALL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | WMU 78 – 76 BALL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BALL 77 – 67 WMU |
| Jan 18, 2023 | BALL 71 – 70 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-15 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#318) | 1.7 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#354) | 0.71 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#351) | 0.68 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#351) | 0.528 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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