They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
Mid-American Conference · University Arena (MI) · March 4, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread WMU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money WMU -122 / BALL +102
Model Predictions
Spread Total WMU win
Actual BALL +3 145 Lost
Massey WMU -5.1 (-8.1) — —
Massey Totals — 138.3 (+6.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 75% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 83% ✗
Baseline Plus ML WMU -4.3 (-7.3) 137.7 (+7.3) 64% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ WMU -3.2 (-6.2) 136.1 (+8.9) 63% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML WMU -4.4 (-7.4) 133.5 (+11.5) 66% ✗
Baseline ML WMU -4.3 (-7.3) 135.2 (+9.8) 65% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 29, 2025 WMU 74 – 71 BALL
Mar 2, 2024 WMU 78 – 76 BALL
Feb 3, 2024 BALL 77 – 67 WMU
Feb 18, 2023 WMU 78 – 68 BALL
Jan 18, 2023 BALL 71 – 70 WMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WMU BALL
Overall 10-21 12-19
Conference 4-14 7-11
Home 7-8 7-7
Away 3-13 4-11
Neutral 0-0 1-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L3 W4
Avg Pts For 73.9 66.1
Avg Pts Against 80.1 71.4
Massey -6.4 (#271) -8.5 (#296)
Bradley-Terry -0.91 (#249) -1.52 (#306)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.09 (#247) -2.11 (#316)
RPI 0.458 (#262) 0.421 (#333)
Shooting & Four Factors WMU BALL
FG% 43.7% 40.0%
3PT% 35.3% 30.9%
REB / G 36.0 31.6
OREB / G 10.9 10.0
AST / TO 1.06 1.12
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 46.2%
TOV% 16.9% 16.3%
ORB% 30.7% 27.4%
FT Rate 23.9% 22.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.3% 52.8%
Opp TOV% 13.4% 18.9%
DRB% 71.0% 68.4%
Opp FT Rate 26.6% 24.8%

Game Analysis

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