Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | BALL -200 WMU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -5.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -4.2 (-7.2) | 149.8 (-4.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -3.0 (-6.0) | 148.8 (-3.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -4.0 (-7.0) | 147.7 (-2.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -4.1 (-7.1) | 148.8 (-3.8) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BALL 74 – 71 WMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | WMU 78 – 76 BALL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BALL 77 – 67 WMU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | WMU 78 – 68 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2023 | BALL 71 – 70 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#265) | -8.6 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#289) | -2.20 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#303) | -2.57 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#320) | 0.408 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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