Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -350 OHIO +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +15 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -6.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -5.6 (+9.4) | 161.3 (+3.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -5.7 (+9.3) | 158.7 (+6.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -5.1 (+9.9) | 158.1 (+6.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -5.6 (+9.4) | 159.3 (+5.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 10-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#104) | 1.6 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#130) | 0.21 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#122) | 0.40 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#121) | 0.509 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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