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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–23 on winners spread MAE 9.8 55 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Lafayette @ Lehigh	+0.3	130.4	51%	49–61	✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State	+7.4	134.2	75%	71–51	✗
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky	-1.9	126.5	43%	75–71	✓
Incarnate Word @ Lamar	+1.2	141.9	54%	70–64	✗
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian	+4.9	133.8	67%	68–84	✓
App State @ Old Dominion	+5.9	129.5	70%	72–58	✗
Robert Morris @ Green Bay	-8.4	131.4	22%	72–38	✓
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee	-3.0	159.4	39%	75–88	✗
Cleveland State @ Wright State	+0.2	143.6	51%	85–77	✗
Kennesaw State @ Florida Gulf Coast	+4.5	140.7	66%	65–63	✗
Grambling @ Mississippi Valley State	-10.9	124.8	16%	65–61	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama State	-2.5	134.5	41%	55–56	✗
Tulane @ Tulsa	-8.1	159.8	23%	79–81	✗
Washington @ Utah	+9.1	137.7	80%	61–86	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Houston Christian	-11.2	157.8	15%	78–90	✗
Utah Valley @ Grand Canyon	+2.1	138.1	58%	76–74	✗
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's	+15.0	132.6	91%	58–77	✓
BYU @ San Francisco	+1.4	143.2	55%	74–82	✓
Portland State @ Idaho State	+2.4	148.6	59%	72–65	✗
Idaho @ Northern Colorado	+3.9	156.2	64%	67–73	✓
Florida @ Mississippi State	+2.9	123.6	60%	61–59	✗
Central Arkansas @ North Alabama	+6.4	161.8	72%	66–82	✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTEP	-8.4	133.7	22%	67–59	✓
New Mexico State @ Utah Tech	+3.2	150.1	61%	76–89	✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State	+2.5	127.9	59%	48–50	✓
Montana State @ Montana	+0.7	132.3	53%	67–64	✗
Gonzaga @ Pacific	-13.1	162.5	12%	99–90	✓
USC @ Arizona State	+4.7	137.9	67%	77–69	✗
San Diego State @ Air Force	-5.1	134.3	32%	70–60	✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist	+4.9	129.9	67%	48–77	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara	+15.4	115.6	92%	58–76	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge	-5.9	126.1	30%	66–69	✗
Oregon @ Stanford	-1.7	136.1	44%	64–71	✗
Butler @ UConn	+14.7	135.8	91%	56–86	✓
Michigan State @ Indiana	+6.5	137.7	72%	69–82	✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University	-6.4	142.4	28%	58–42	✓
Maryland @ Purdue	+10.2	130.7	82%	55–58	✓
Memphis @ Cincinnati	+2.1	151.6	57%	75–68	✗
NJIT @ Vermont	+11.8	130.0	86%	69–85	✓
Bryant @ UMass Lowell	+5.0	161.7	67%	79–98	✓
Minnesota @ Michigan	+13.5	137.8	89%	56–60	✓
Merrimack @ St. Francis Brooklyn	+0.4	116.4	51%	63–55	✗
Sacred Heart @ Wagner	+5.6	133.4	69%	58–68	✓
Binghamton @ Maine	+4.8	141.6	67%	57–78	✓
Fairfield @ Siena	+9.1	134.1	80%	62–52	✗
Niagara @ Saint Peter's	-0.3	116.9	49%	59–57	✓
Manhattan @ Rider	+11.0	141.4	84%	65–67	✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac	+13.3	140.2	89%	82–87	✓
Marist @ Mount St. Mary's	+5.2	123.3	68%	55–59	✓
Temple @ Houston	+24.6	125.6	99%	56–55	✗
Wichita State @ SMU	+0.4	128.8	52%	71–69	✗
Oregon State @ California	+3.1	120.0	61%	68–48	✗
Furman @ Wofford	-2.0	148.4	43%	96–82	✓
Washington State @ Colorado	+4.0	136.2	64%	55–58	✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+5.3	154.8	68%	70–59	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.