Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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85–43 on winners spread MAE 10.2 128 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ Xavier +0.7 144.7 53% 68–74 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee -6.7 145.1 27% 57–60 ✗
Oakland @ Robert Morris -8.9 145.6 21% 71–68 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State +1.9 140.8 57% 69–82 ✓
Rider @ Saint Peter's +10.1 129.8 82% 58–49 ✗
Monmouth @ Manhattan -5.8 144.4 30% 75–65 ✓
Kent State @ Akron +3.6 123.6 63% 66–64 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -5.2 128.0 32% 71–62 ✓
Nevada @ Utah State +13.7 149.4 89% 85–72 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Louis +8.2 142.7 77% 68–61 ✗
Iona @ Siena -11.1 141.3 16% 64–70 ✗
Fresno State @ Colorado State +2.4 129.8 59% 50–65 ✓
UNLV @ Boise State +8.9 129.3 79% 63–69 ✓
Texas A&M @ Auburn +13.8 144.4 90% 58–75 ✓
Texas @ Baylor +5.1 126.7 68% 63–80 ✓
Lafayette @ Lehigh +4.9 138.6 67% 73–69 ✗
Creighton @ Georgetown -5.2 143.3 32% 80–66 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Massachusetts +1.2 158.9 54% 67–69 ✓
Arkansas @ Alabama +5.2 161.3 68% 67–68 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas +10.3 145.7 83% 69–71 ✓
Seton Hall @ Villanova +10.1 134.3 82% 67–73 ✓
American University @ Boston University +14.0 135.7 90% 67–85 ✓
Merrimack @ Wagner +16.8 121.8 94% 80–65 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Fairleigh Dickinson -1.3 149.7 45% 75–82 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Central Connecticut -0.3 133.2 49% 67–50 ✓
Illinois State @ Indiana State +1.1 160.2 54% 57–60 ✓
Niagara @ Fairfield +2.5 127.1 59% 53–73 ✓
Navy @ Army -4.9 129.9 33% 52–49 ✓
Rutgers @ Wisconsin +8.7 128.5 79% 73–65 ✗
Holy Cross @ Bucknell +5.3 144.8 68% 78–72 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Morgan State -3.4 146.7 38% 74–64 ✓
Temple @ Tulane +4.9 136.0 67% 83–92 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +15.3 137.5 92% 70–72 ✓
Bryant @ Long Island University +0.9 161.3 53% 88–99 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +19.6 131.7 96% 65–82 ✓
Florida State @ North Carolina +7.8 148.1 76% 74–94 ✓
Yale @ Columbia -12.5 147.9 13% 84–59 ✓
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +3.3 143.0 62% 74–82 ✓
Brown @ Cornell +3.1 149.1 61% 81–80 ✗
New Hampshire @ Binghamton +0.9 131.0 53% 69–60 ✗
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State +3.3 133.1 62% 58–81 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +5.6 128.5 69% 58–79 ✓
George Washington @ Dayton +16.1 129.2 93% 54–80 ✓
Davidson @ Rhode Island -1.7 134.8 44% 65–72 ✗
Chattanooga @ Furman +2.5 140.5 59% 64–58 ✗
Northeastern @ Drexel +9.1 136.8 79% 51–67 ✓
Elon @ Towson +12.0 126.9 86% 50–86 ✓
Ball State @ Buffalo +13.1 158.0 88% 74–80 ✓
South Carolina @ Georgia -2.5 145.4 41% 80–68 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -6.9 130.3 26% 67–44 ✓
Sam Houston @ Chicago State -9.5 130.5 20% 72–59 ✓
Miami @ Wake Forest +7.4 152.8 75% 76–72 ✗
NC State @ Pittsburgh -0.8 137.3 47% 69–71 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +24.0 125.4 99% 45–83 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -3.9 139.0 36% 63–54 ✓
UT Arlington @ Louisiana +5.9 137.7 70% 80–77 ✗
North Dakota @ Western Illinois +15.6 157.6 92% 68–70 ✓
Memphis @ Houston +14.5 142.1 91% 69–59 ✗
Indiana @ Michigan State +3.5 134.3 63% 61–76 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +9.4 166.0 80% 83–79 ✗
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) +2.0 163.4 57% 78–94 ✓
Ohio @ Eastern Michigan -9.5 144.7 19% 74–56 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +12.3 142.2 87% 57–78 ✓
TCU @ Texas Tech +10.2 127.8 82% 69–82 ✓
Murray State @ Morehead State -4.8 132.4 33% 57–53 ✓
California @ Oregon +10.4 133.6 83% 78–64 ✗
South Carolina State @ Coppin State +5.8 148.1 70% 66–58 ✗
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego -3.6 129.8 37% 62–85 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Alcorn State +9.4 130.3 80% 71–63 ✗
Delaware State @ Howard +23.2 140.4 98% 72–85 ✓
Western Kentucky @ UTSA -12.3 145.2 13% 71–65 ✓
Southern Utah @ Sacramento State -7.2 140.1 26% 83–57 ✓
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley +0.7 136.3 52% 68–72 ✓
Lamar @ Seattle U +18.5 140.6 95% 50–76 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Francis -2.1 133.7 42% 54–52 ✓
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina Upstate +1.2 145.9 54% 83–56 ✗
Longwood @ North Carolina A&T -5.2 139.8 32% 62–70 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +8.7 122.6 79% 53–63 ✓
Dartmouth @ Princeton +7.1 143.7 74% 40–85 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +9.4 145.4 80% 82–89 ✓
Kansas State @ Iowa State +4.8 124.0 67% 75–69 ✗
Georgia State @ App State +5.1 131.4 68% 58–49 ✗
Valparaiso @ Missouri State +14.0 141.2 90% 66–84 ✓
VCU @ George Mason +1.6 124.9 56% 85–70 ✗
South Dakota @ Denver -0.9 141.9 47% 84–76 ✓
Samford @ East Tennessee State +4.7 149.9 67% 77–73 ✗
William & Mary @ James Madison +13.8 149.5 89% 55–69 ✓
Marquette @ Butler -7.5 132.4 25% 79–85 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +0.1 145.2 50% 60–61 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois -7.6 125.4 25% 70–82 ✗
Grambling @ Texas Southern +12.6 136.0 87% 65–68 ✓
McNeese @ Northwestern State -0.6 159.2 48% 80–75 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls +6.4 145.1 72% 80–83 ✓
Presbyterian @ Winthrop +8.8 139.3 79% 61–65 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama -2.9 128.0 40% 75–69 ✓
Duke @ Boston College -13.5 137.9 11% 72–61 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama A&M +11.4 135.4 85% 92–94 ✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -4.4 138.6 34% 64–56 ✓
Belmont @ Southeast Missouri State -15.0 162.7 9% 81–72 ✓
Tennessee State @ Austin Peay +5.1 135.4 68% 52–54 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho -9.2 160.4 20% 79–83 ✗
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +15.1 139.3 91% 72–75 ✓
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana +10.4 150.3 83% 84–89 ✓
Incarnate Word @ LSU New Orleans +12.8 143.8 88% 57–84 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell +1.6 140.1 56% 71–88 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +0.4 165.1 52% 73–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville State +18.0 154.3 95% 72–62 ✗
Little Rock @ Troy +15.6 140.7 92% 66–62 ✗
Toledo @ Northern Illinois -14.0 141.4 10% 100–72 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota State +27.5 167.6 99% 61–82 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama State +12.3 145.2 87% 75–70 ✗
Radford @ Hampton -0.2 123.0 49% 60–54 ✓
North Florida @ Kennesaw State +6.9 142.0 73% 74–72 ✗
Fordham @ Duquesne -0.6 133.7 48% 65–54 ✓
Arizona @ Washington -18.0 151.5 5% 92–68 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan +1.9 143.8 57% 68–57 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +14.0 133.5 90% 64–73 ✓
SMU @ East Carolina -7.0 148.4 26% 80–66 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +10.1 132.9 82% 63–70 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +0.0 152.4 50% 74–58 ✗
Campbell @ High Point +0.7 131.9 53% 60–42 ✗
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech +6.7 147.8 73% 59–71 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville -3.9 119.8 36% 69–73 ✗
La Salle @ Richmond +13.7 144.4 89% 63–77 ✓
DePaul @ Providence +7.5 137.5 75% 73–76 ✓
Southern @ Prairie View A&M -4.7 152.4 34% 77–84 ✗
Florida A&M @ Jackson State +4.2 119.0 65% 56–60 ✓
Hofstra @ Delaware +1.0 145.5 54% 80–66 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.