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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–18 on winners spread MAE 8.7 61 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Ohio @ Central Michigan	-13.6	139.7	11%	81–72	✓
Indiana State @ Evansville	-4.4	130.9	35%	80–77	✓
Southern Miss @ UAB	+27.0	140.4	99%	63–84	✓
Old Dominion @ Middle Tennessee	+8.1	135.0	77%	48–63	✓
Florida International @ Marshall	+3.7	151.9	63%	72–71	✗
Louisiana Tech @ Charlotte	-3.9	145.2	36%	82–77	✓
Bryant @ Sacred Heart	-4.1	156.6	36%	99–86	✓
Central Connecticut @ Merrimack	+5.6	119.3	70%	60–57	✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Long Island University	+8.2	147.4	77%	69–74	✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-0.6	145.9	48%	78–65	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood	+10.3	147.7	82%	72–85	✓
UIC @ Cleveland State	+9.7	150.0	81%	76–75	✗
IU Indianapolis @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+20.8	118.5	97%	57–72	✓
Arkansas State @ Troy	+3.5	136.2	62%	77–79	✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina	+6.6	139.3	73%	61–50	✗
North Dakota State @ Western Illinois	+3.9	149.4	64%	84–81	✗
Mercer @ VMI	+6.3	150.2	72%	79–85	✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro	+6.6	139.4	73%	66–86	✓
Hofstra @ Drexel	+1.4	150.2	55%	83–73	✗
Northeastern @ Delaware	+9.1	131.5	80%	61–74	✓
Elon @ James Madison	+6.6	146.6	72%	70–66	✗
Iowa @ Maryland	-5.0	152.4	32%	110–87	✓
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe	-0.1	140.2	50%	71–74	✗
Duke @ Clemson	-6.1	145.5	29%	82–64	✓
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls	+15.8	142.9	92%	58–69	✓
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville	+3.8	140.7	64%	63–71	✓
Morehead State @ Belmont	+10.4	145.3	83%	47–48	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky	+3.0	148.0	61%	69–76	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ LSU New Orleans	+2.8	147.1	60%	69–78	✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Valley	+1.4	127.8	55%	79–69	✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Chicago State	-12.3	135.5	13%	81–61	✓
Texas State @ Louisiana	+2.4	134.8	59%	82–73	✗
Little Rock @ South Alabama	+17.3	144.9	94%	46–77	✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas	+9.9	153.4	82%	78–70	✗
South Dakota @ Omaha	-6.8	150.6	27%	91–69	✓
Murray State @ Tennessee State	-16.8	139.4	6%	73–62	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois	-11.1	128.8	16%	73–62	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Austin Peay	+3.7	149.5	63%	66–74	✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State	+6.5	152.5	72%	76–69	✗
Pacific @ Gonzaga	+35.1	151.7	100%	51–89	✓
Purdue @ Michigan	-6.2	150.4	29%	58–82	✗
Arizona @ Washington State	-6.1	144.0	29%	72–60	✓
San Diego @ Saint Mary's	+15.5	123.0	92%	57–86	✓
Stanford @ Oregon	+7.6	141.6	75%	60–68	✓
Portland State @ Montana State	+13.0	139.5	88%	74–77	✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana	+10.6	132.5	83%	72–67	✗
Idaho State @ Idaho	+7.8	143.1	76%	79–70	✗
Weber State @ Eastern Washington	-0.2	157.4	49%	67–75	✗
New Mexico State @ Utah Tech	-10.4	144.4	17%	77–69	✓
South Dakota State @ Denver	-11.8	158.7	14%	84–61	✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana	+4.6	155.7	66%	86–91	✓
UC Riverside @ UC Irvine	+5.5	115.7	69%	56–66	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield	-4.0	127.3	36%	74–62	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly	+4.0	122.9	64%	83–78	✗
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State	-5.8	145.6	30%	79–61	✓
Lamar @ California Baptist	+12.7	140.9	88%	61–83	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Seattle U	+12.9	157.5	88%	59–67	✓
Arizona State @ Washington	+2.5	137.0	59%	64–87	✓
BYU @ Loyola Marymount	-9.1	140.1	20%	83–82	✓
Pepperdine @ San Francisco	+21.1	144.0	97%	61–105	✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i	+4.2	146.2	65%	73–66	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.