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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–18 on winners spread MAE 8.0 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Houston @ SMU -9.9 138.5 18% 83–85 ✗
Ohio State @ Rutgers -4.4 138.4 34% 64–66 ✗
Xavier @ Seton Hall +2.2 142.5 58% 71–73 ✓
Yale @ Harvard +1.5 140.9 55% 62–59 ✗
Army @ Boston University +8.8 140.9 79% 74–75 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Holy Cross -6.4 133.2 28% 64–68 ✗
Cincinnati @ South Florida -7.6 117.3 25% 70–59 ✓
Lehigh @ Colgate +14.0 145.7 90% 62–78 ✓
American University @ Bucknell +4.9 144.5 67% 66–68 ✓
Radford @ Winthrop +10.5 139.6 83% 48–58 ✓
High Point @ Presbyterian +1.8 131.0 56% 79–70 ✗
Charleston Southern @ North Carolina A&T +11.8 141.8 86% 51–62 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Campbell +0.6 125.2 52% 57–45 ✗
Wake Forest @ NC State -4.5 156.6 34% 69–51 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Miami +10.0 144.7 82% 70–79 ✓
Louisville @ Notre Dame +8.2 134.6 77% 57–63 ✓
NJIT @ New Hampshire +7.4 131.0 75% 60–55 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Stony Brook +3.0 141.0 61% 85–87 ✓
Maine @ UAlbany +14.9 122.5 91% 73–63 ✗
Hartford @ UMBC +9.0 149.1 79% 64–68 ✓
Binghamton @ Vermont +16.4 137.0 93% 51–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Florida -0.9 135.8 47% 73–70 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville +4.7 135.3 66% 68–81 ✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State -3.6 143.1 37% 71–78 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris -2.1 143.0 42% 79–62 ✓
George Washington @ Massachusetts +8.2 156.1 77% 77–68 ✗
Richmond @ George Mason +1.7 137.5 56% 84–87 ✓
Duquesne @ Dayton +15.4 127.9 92% 54–75 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson +10.7 147.2 83% 67–73 ✓
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +19.1 144.2 96% 47–65 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield +6.7 143.2 73% 69–60 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State -10.8 129.3 16% 58–50 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Stetson -7.4 136.6 25% 57–63 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Kennesaw State +14.1 157.3 90% 72–83 ✓
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +7.5 139.5 75% 60–92 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas State -6.7 134.5 27% 75–60 ✓
Tulane @ Memphis +8.4 149.0 78% 69–80 ✓
Wright State @ Green Bay -6.6 139.3 28% 79–62 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee -1.5 135.5 45% 75–39 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +5.8 129.6 70% 44–53 ✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +5.3 153.9 69% 75–78 ✓
Missouri State @ Drake +0.9 144.4 53% 66–62 ✗
Wofford @ Samford -3.8 147.0 36% 60–65 ✗
Alabama @ Ole Miss -5.5 145.3 31% 97–83 ✓
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -3.8 129.2 36% 55–70 ✗
Tennessee @ Mississippi State -4.1 139.0 36% 72–63 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul +10.4 151.0 83% 74–82 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Florida State +11.0 129.7 84% 56–51 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Bradley -2.9 133.1 40% 61–68 ✗
Minnesota @ Nebraska -4.0 148.3 36% 65–78 ✗
California @ Oregon State -1.5 134.0 45% 63–61 ✓
San Diego State @ San José State -13.5 120.2 11% 72–62 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Wagner +12.1 129.8 86% 57–69 ✓
William & Mary @ Towson +20.4 130.4 97% 60–75 ✓
Georgia Southern @ App State +6.0 123.2 71% 61–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.