All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–17 on winners spread MAE 8.3 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Notre Dame @ Clemson +2.7 136.5 60% 76–61 ✗
Vermont @ UAlbany -10.2 129.1 18% 76–63 ✓
Hartford @ NJIT +2.4 139.1 59% 65–49 ✗
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.8 143.7 67% 66–73 ✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama +6.6 140.1 72% 51–70 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford +14.9 142.8 91% 57–69 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +0.9 152.5 53% 79–85 ✓
Canisius @ Marist +9.5 138.6 81% 70–71 ✓
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan +0.8 142.2 53% 63–77 ✓
South Florida @ Wichita State +13.9 116.7 90% 69–73 ✓
Cincinnati @ Tulsa -4.3 133.5 35% 77–83 ✗
Utah @ Colorado +4.1 137.2 65% 76–81 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State +1.5 134.4 56% 77–63 ✗
Pacific @ San Diego +7.4 129.0 75% 54–60 ✓
Evansville @ Southern Illinois +12.9 113.3 88% 62–69 ✓
Drake @ Bradley +3.0 138.0 61% 59–68 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +9.4 147.1 80% 86–91 ✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas -2.9 146.8 40% 75–64 ✓
Mississippi State @ LSU +8.7 133.0 78% 65–69 ✓
Air Force @ San Diego State +16.0 107.5 93% 64–76 ✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri -1.0 130.6 47% 68–74 ✗
Penn State @ Minnesota +1.6 124.9 56% 70–76 ✓
Portland State @ Montana +5.9 136.2 71% 76–85 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech -10.4 137.7 17% 60–61 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State -14.6 141.4 9% 74–52 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +13.8 145.3 90% 58–74 ✓
UCLA @ USC -2.2 141.2 42% 64–67 ✗
Arizona State @ Washington State +13.3 130.2 89% 58–55 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield +7.1 125.8 74% 71–65 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly -9.7 128.1 19% 69–64 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ California Baptist +7.3 155.1 75% 72–80 ✓
BYU @ Pepperdine -14.6 146.7 9% 91–85 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland +2.3 141.6 58% 76–86 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon State -4.9 140.0 33% 76–65 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i +1.9 136.5 57% 55–72 ✓
UConn @ St. John's -5.0 157.7 32% 63–60 ✓
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +8.7 144.7 79% 73–68 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +4.3 143.0 65% 75–71 ✗
Maryland @ Purdue +16.2 151.8 93% 61–62 ✓
Stony Brook @ Maine -8.3 140.5 22% 85–74 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +8.1 142.6 77% 59–75 ✓
Monmouth @ Iona +7.5 144.1 75% 62–70 ✓
Siena @ Rider +3.2 131.6 62% 76–75 ✗
Northwestern @ Illinois +10.5 144.9 83% 66–73 ✓
UAB @ Old Dominion -10.4 136.8 17% 72–81 ✗
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +4.3 128.6 65% 44–54 ✓
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +6.2 154.4 71% 83–66 ✗
Nebraska @ Iowa +19.9 166.8 97% 75–98 ✓
Marshall @ UTEP +8.2 145.6 77% 88–79 ✗
Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee +7.9 142.6 76% 63–78 ✓
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro +4.7 127.3 66% 73–64 ✗
Colorado State @ Boise State +3.1 134.3 61% 77–74 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago +9.1 139.7 79% 58–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.