← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
4–1 on winners
spread MAE 5.8
5 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
William & Mary
@
UNC Wilmington
|
+14.1 | 140.7 | 90% | 73–80 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
New Hampshire
|
+1.7 | 137.9 | 56% | 62–68 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
St. Bonaventure
|
-1.1 | 141.6 | 46% | 79–83 | ✗ |
Lafayette
@
Colgate
|
+14.9 | 139.4 | 91% | 61–69 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Austin Peay
|
+13.6 | 119.6 | 89% | 54–62 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.