Betting Lines
| Spread | UNH -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | UNH -145 UMBC +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNH +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNH -2.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNH -0.7 (+5.3) | 135.1 (-5.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNH -0.9 (+5.1) | 138.0 (-8.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNH -1.1 (+4.9) | 138.8 (-8.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNH -0.7 (+5.3) | 136.9 (-6.9) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#250) | -3.7 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#273) | -0.74 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#281) | -1.05 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#222) | 0.468 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 12.5% |
Game Analysis
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