Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -13.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -10.0 (-3.0) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -11.8 (-4.8) | 144.9 (+8.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -11.2 (-4.2) | 144.2 (+8.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -12.2 (-5.2) | 143.2 (+9.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | W&M 85 – 78 UNCW |
| Jan 23, 2026 | W&M 77 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 24, 2025 | UNCW 79 – 70 W&M |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 74 W&M |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UNCW 81 – 65 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-2 | 4-10 |
| Away | 9-5 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W4 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#195) | -12.2 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#123) | -2.14 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#154) | -2.93 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#118) | 0.398 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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