The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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87–39 on winners spread MAE 7.6 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marist @ Niagara +1.5 135.1 57% 62–67 ✓
Iona @ Siena -9.7 139.1 17% 70–51 ✓
Manhattan @ Canisius +9.9 139.8 84% 70–82 ✓
Michigan State @ Wisconsin +3.9 137.3 72% 66–81 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure +2.6 140.8 64% 72–91 ✓
Utah Valley @ Seattle U +6.2 139.9 76% 61–62 ✓
Stanford @ California +0.6 154.0 56% 71–73 ✓
Kansas State @ Houston +15.0 127.5 88% 52–74 ✓
Boston College @ Notre Dame -2.4 133.6 37% 61–58 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville -7.2 130.8 20% 69–52 ✓
William & Mary @ Northeastern +6.8 140.4 75% 72–68 ✗
Nebraska @ Maryland +1.1 135.3 52% 51–73 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross -4.2 142.9 24% 78–72 ✓
Georgia @ Florida +6.4 157.9 74% 98–102 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire +5.2 155.4 75% 86–79 ✗
Georgetown @ Providence +12.6 144.6 87% 76–84 ✓
Fordham @ Duquesne +8.2 138.8 80% 59–68 ✓
Seton Hall @ Marquette +7.9 145.5 79% 57–75 ✓
Missouri @ South Carolina +8.9 136.3 79% 64–72 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +8.1 131.3 73% 74–70 ✗
Bucknell @ Army -0.6 127.2 44% 66–56 ✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +6.3 128.2 73% 68–69 ✓
Akron @ Miami (OH) -5.6 141.0 35% 68–70 ✗
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan +3.1 140.8 60% 62–55 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay +14.8 135.4 89% 64–78 ✓
Kansas @ Iowa State +6.6 143.8 80% 75–79 ✓
North Carolina @ Florida State -4.4 148.1 30% 75–68 ✓
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma +3.8 141.2 69% 85–84 ✗
Texas @ BYU +10.5 148.2 86% 72–84 ✓
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State +3.0 141.8 63% 66–70 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Murray State +0.0 134.9 48% 60–58 ✗
Illinois State @ Evansville +1.5 135.5 58% 54–58 ✓
Towson @ Delaware +3.2 134.7 64% 67–56 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Drexel +15.7 143.0 88% 47–62 ✓
Hofstra @ Monmouth +0.6 141.3 55% 78–81 ✓
Elon @ Hampton -3.0 153.0 32% 80–74 ✓
Charleston @ Campbell -7.3 144.0 21% 90–67 ✓
Boston University @ Lafayette +3.5 125.7 55% 62–48 ✗
Lipscomb @ Stetson -1.9 154.9 46% 59–80 ✗
Long Island University @ Le Moyne +10.1 140.5 86% 74–87 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairleigh Dickinson -0.5 149.9 46% 91–93 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Columbia +0.9 146.4 57% 81–84 ✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo +5.9 149.9 74% 72–88 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +5.2 150.1 76% 71–81 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +7.2 139.5 79% 62–90 ✓
Princeton @ Cornell -0.5 153.5 51% 68–83 ✗
Yale @ Harvard -3.2 143.1 33% 78–65 ✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina -4.2 147.1 36% 83–85 ✗
Binghamton @ Maine +6.5 138.1 76% 51–50 ✗
Nicholls @ East Texas A&M -0.6 141.1 43% 87–84 ✓
Brown @ Dartmouth -4.3 130.6 29% 71–75 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Miami +3.9 143.3 69% 68–72 ✓
Indiana @ Illinois +13.7 154.1 87% 62–70 ✓
Villanova @ Butler +2.7 143.7 68% 81–88 ✓
Grand Canyon @ UT Arlington -6.1 144.7 28% 67–61 ✓
California Baptist @ Stephen F. Austin +5.2 133.6 65% 81–79 ✗
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech +13.0 134.0 86% 53–73 ✓
Auburn @ Mississippi State -1.8 143.5 45% 58–64 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern +9.6 135.1 78% 69–85 ✓
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan +3.2 139.3 61% 65–75 ✓
Western Illinois @ Morehead State +9.4 132.4 83% 50–64 ✓
Clemson @ Duke +5.5 148.7 78% 71–72 ✓
TCU @ Baylor +5.5 150.4 74% 105–102 ✗
Utah State @ Boise State +1.4 140.3 56% 90–84 ✗
Colorado State @ Wyoming -9.4 144.4 22% 76–79 ✗
Charlotte @ Tulane +2.6 147.2 49% 75–71 ✗
UTSA @ South Florida +10.6 156.0 87% 72–89 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso -1.9 139.6 43% 81–70 ✓
High Point @ Winthrop +1.0 155.1 51% 83–81 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Gardner-Webb +7.8 143.0 78% 70–75 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Stony Brook -3.4 142.2 37% 78–86 ✗
Colgate @ American University -1.3 134.6 39% 73–54 ✓
Rhode Island @ George Mason +10.1 140.7 84% 84–92 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +14.1 130.2 87% 58–68 ✓
Merrimack @ Saint Francis -8.1 130.8 19% 74–55 ✓
Samford @ East Tennessee State -6.7 155.0 27% 75–72 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee -2.2 153.8 38% 91–87 ✓
Southern Miss @ Marshall +1.8 141.3 59% 67–83 ✓
Vermont @ Bryant +0.9 140.9 48% 67–57 ✗
Omaha @ Denver +5.2 160.3 72% 91–72 ✗
Jacksonville @ Bellarmine +1.4 137.6 56% 63–69 ✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman -1.8 150.3 43% 71–82 ✗
North Florida @ Eastern Kentucky +5.0 145.3 68% 76–89 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Central Arkansas -6.0 161.2 31% 87–92 ✗
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian +2.7 152.1 66% 82–67 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside +0.3 146.0 50% 65–53 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +12.4 142.0 86% 70–85 ✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M -0.3 150.0 41% 76–67 ✓
Howard @ Morgan State -6.7 151.2 29% 79–85 ✗
Presbyterian @ Radford +7.1 143.1 78% 58–73 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +8.2 129.8 79% 57–74 ✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin +10.8 148.9 85% 67–76 ✓
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -0.4 137.8 45% 64–60 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State -5.4 140.9 33% 79–68 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Little Rock +10.5 148.9 86% 61–66 ✓
Colorado @ Washington State +2.0 146.4 58% 69–78 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Grambling +15.4 127.2 90% 46–54 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech +9.7 144.8 82% 67–91 ✓
UIC @ Belmont +3.1 146.6 67% 65–74 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan -0.7 157.5 50% 88–78 ✓
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +3.6 141.9 64% 66–62 ✗
VMI @ Western Carolina +17.2 148.3 90% 77–102 ✓
New Orleans @ McNeese +18.8 147.1 91% 65–102 ✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +6.8 141.3 77% 68–86 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville State -2.3 132.8 38% 62–73 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Davis +0.8 139.4 53% 92–59 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -5.5 151.1 27% 89–68 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Maryland Eastern Shore -4.8 134.6 27% 65–57 ✓
Arizona @ Oregon -5.1 160.4 28% 87–78 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern -6.8 146.4 24% 71–65 ✓
UTEP @ Sam Houston +2.5 141.3 65% 56–60 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy +10.1 148.9 84% 79–83 ✓
South Carolina State @ Delaware State +5.5 143.4 72% 66–64 ✗
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt -12.9 139.6 13% 75–62 ✓
Kentucky @ Arkansas -5.9 159.0 33% 63–57 ✓
Dayton @ Richmond -1.3 131.4 54% 64–69 ✗
Bradley @ Indiana State +7.0 152.3 76% 86–95 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Drake +8.7 142.9 78% 63–77 ✓
La Salle @ George Washington +6.2 153.3 74% 80–70 ✗
Furman @ Wofford -2.9 155.1 38% 67–77 ✗
James Madison @ App State +1.5 140.8 55% 76–82 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +3.2 148.1 64% 75–79 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +0.8 136.2 54% 61–79 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +10.4 154.9 86% 66–80 ✓
Minnesota @ Penn State +1.1 145.0 49% 83–74 ✗
Alabama State @ Prairie View A&M +0.4 135.1 48% 74–67 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.