Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | COLU +105 PENN -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLU +3 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | COLU -1.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLU -1.5 (+1.5) | 145.5 (+19.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -0.7 (+3.7) | 145.5 (+19.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLU -1.1 (+1.9) | 146.2 (+18.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLU -0.9 (+2.1) | 146.4 (+18.6) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PENN 76 – 67 COLU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | COLU 72 – 67 PENN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | PENN 92 – 87 COLU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PENN 93 – 78 COLU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PENN 84 – 72 COLU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 3-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#215) | -1.1 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#209) | -0.38 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#221) | -0.22 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#200) | 0.483 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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