Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -188 COLU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +12 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -3.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -4.5 (+7.5) | 144.2 (+11.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -2.5 (+9.5) | 146.0 (+10.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -2.4 (+9.6) | 146.8 (+9.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -2.5 (+9.5) | 146.9 (+9.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PENN 76 – 67 COLU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | COLU 72 – 67 PENN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | PENN 92 – 87 COLU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PENN 93 – 78 COLU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | COLU 84 – 81 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 4-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#198) | -2.6 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#275) | -0.61 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#256) | -0.55 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#247) | 0.461 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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