Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | AMER +140 COLG -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +19 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -0.9 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -2.3 (-16.7) | 132.7 (-5.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -1.3 (-17.7) | 134.9 (-7.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -1.3 (-17.7) | 134.6 (-7.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -1.8 (-17.2) | 134.1 (-7.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | AMER 70 – 66 COLG |
| Jan 8, 2026 | COLG 64 – 62 AMER |
| Mar 9, 2025 | AMER 72 – 62 COLG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AMER 67 – 59 COLG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | AMER 81 – 77 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-9 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#248) | 0.4 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#298) | 0.24 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#291) | 0.13 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#302) | 0.507 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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