Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | AMER +115 COLG -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -0.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -1.1 (+2.9) | 135.2 (+22.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -0.3 (+3.7) | 136.3 (+21.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.2 (+3.8) | 136.0 (+22.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -0.8 (+3.2) | 137.4 (+20.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | AMER 70 – 66 COLG |
| Jan 8, 2026 | COLG 64 – 62 AMER |
| Mar 9, 2025 | AMER 72 – 62 COLG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AMER 67 – 59 COLG |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AMER 66 – 64 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#257) | -2.8 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#219) | -0.78 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#220) | -0.86 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#198) | 0.464 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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