Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | COLG -245 AMER +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -8.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -5.2 (-3.2) | 147.1 (-21.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -4.1 (-2.1) | 147.4 (-21.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -4.7 (-2.7) | 147.4 (-21.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -4.9 (-2.9) | 148.2 (-22.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | AMER 70 – 66 COLG |
| Mar 9, 2025 | AMER 72 – 62 COLG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AMER 67 – 59 COLG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | AMER 81 – 77 COLG |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AMER 66 – 64 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#178) | -5.2 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#220) | -0.40 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#221) | -0.75 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#168) | 0.486 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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